Bottom Line: My prediction is that ISIS will try to do something. Their plan would be to accomplish the bloodiest, goriest, deadliest operation possible in Times Square this evening. It’s that kind of year.
Let’s get right down to brass tacks. You and I both know that ISIS would love to launch some devastating, bloody attack tonight. They’re suffused with a white-hot hatred for America, and they’d love to shock the American people more than anything else.
Everyone in the media is crowing about how safe this New Year’s Eve party in Times Square, New York will be. No problems whatsoever! Nothing could possibly happen! They’re practically daring ISIS to launch an operation.
You might be thinking that ISIS would want to wait for Trump to take office before striking. After all, Obama’s been a total patsy, a marshmallow, for them. It’s accepted worldwide that you can assign one primary reason for the constant drumbeat of bloody atrocities in Europe and elsewhere around the world: Obama.
Strong American leadership is absolutely essential to peace in the world. If the ISIS baboons were to strike tonight, they’d simply underscore that understanding, and thereby bolster incoming-President Trump’s apparent resolve to increase American strength and military readiness. And: to defeat ISIS with some overwhelming effort.
However, there’s one more overriding thing in ISIS’ mind: No matter what, ISIS would love to wipe the New Year’s smile off the face of America. Today. If they do have semi-rational analysts in their midst, they know that America is newly-optimistic, newly-hopeful, because of coming out from under nearly eight years of the enervating, morale-sapping Obama Presidency.
The ISIS leadership also probably figure that their window of opportunity is closing, with the departure from the White House of the finest President the terrorists have ever had.
Reading too much into ISIS “thought patterns” might not be productive. These are not bright people. They’re gibbering baboons. Yes, yes, yes, I know… some of them are media-savvy analysts of world events. However, the leadership of the group — the ones who decide what do do and when — are possessed of an irrational, simplistic, deeply stupid, frankly psychotic mindset. They want to do something, and they’re irrational and … stupid.
However, surely someone in the ranks of ISIS understands that a big atrocity in Times Square this evening, opens the door to a much less restrained response from America than has been in effect the past eight years. Surely that particular someone has mentioned that in ISIS leadership circles. And this in the context of an incoming President who ran on defeating ISIS with a massive effort.
However, the weak, ineffectual Obama almost certainly has lulled ISIS’ leadership into a sense of security. Important Note: I didn’t say “false sense.” It’s certain that some in ISIS’ leadership think: “We’ve faced America and we’re still here. We win. We should go ahead and do something in New York City on the occasion of their New Years’ Eve party.”
Here’s something else you and I both know: ISIS’s leadership demanded a plan for some atrocity tonight in New York City. Just a question of whether they try to execute the plan. So, such a plan exists(1). Do they want to execute it? I don’t know. I’d say the chances are: 65-35 (give or take five) in favor of trying to do something tonight in New York City, at Times Square.
Part of my analysis of such things is always to try to put myself into the shoes of those whom I’m analyzing. Now, don’t forget, it’s difficult to be a gibbering baboon when one is not one. In compensation, however, it’s easier for a non-baboon to analyze a baboon, than the other way ’round. Understanding all that: What would I do if I were in ISIS’ leadership?
I’d say: Go. My prediction is that ISIS will try to do something. Their plan would be to accomplish the bloodiest, goriest, deadliest operation possible in Times Square this evening. It’s that kind of year(2).
Never have I so enthusiastically and energetically rooted against myself, and hoped that I’m wrong. Here’s hoping that I’m going to have a fine repast consisting of: crow … tomorrow.
(1) It’s a sure thing that a top-priority goal of American intelligence is to get their hands on that plan. The document would reveal ISIS’s thinking on American security weaknesses, and how they would exploit them to harm us.
(2) This last may be the primary reason to expect such an attack.